
with Brian Marren, Greg Williams
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In this episode of "The Human Behavior Podcast," hosts Brian Marren and Greg Williams conduct a real-time analysis of the recent mass shooting in Nova Scotia, Canada, which began on the evening of April 19, 2020. The discussion, recorded just three days after the event, delves into the behavioral patterns and tactical considerations surrounding the 12-hour rampage by Gabriel Wortman, which resulted in at least 23 deaths across 16 crime scenes.
Brian Marren opens by outlining the known details, including Wortman's use of an authentic police uniform and a replica cruiser, which allowed him to move freely and deceive victims and first responders. Greg Williams highlights the significant difference in how such events are reported and perceived in Canada compared to the U.S., with Canadian authorities being more "tight-lipped" until facts are confirmed. The hosts emphasize their focus on human behavior pattern recognition and analysis, seeking pre-event indicators and lessons learned for in-progress incident response rather than just post-event motive seeking. They draw parallels to other incidents, notably Anders Breivik, who also used a police disguise to facilitate his attack. The conversation underscores the critical need for effective communication, rapid geographic profiling, and predictive analysis to anticipate a perpetrator's actions and allocate resources during such dynamic, unfolding crises.
Key Takeaways from the Discussion:
Hey everyone, thanks for tuning in. I'm Brian Marren, host of The Human Behavior Podcast. You're going to be watching the video version of our audio podcast. Please, guys, if you like the video, like it, subscribe to the channel. There's going to be more content down there if you're already a subscriber, and a better way for us to get you guys some more stuff. If you have any questions or comments, go ahead, leave them below. Check out our links down below to get a hold of us and to actually find out more places where you can get more information about this. Please like it, subscribe, follow us on Facebook at HBPRNA. Remember, all these cases that we discuss and all these discussions that we have are through the lenses of what we call Human Behavior Pattern Recognition and Analysis. So please like it, share it, tell your friends about it, and we hope you enjoy the show. Thanks.
All right, Greg, so we're going to go ahead and get started today. We are going to be talking about the recent attack, a shooting attack that occurred in Canada. So this is... it's just recently occurred, right? It happened the morning or evening of April 19th, excuse me. But I want to let everyone know who's listening: we're recording this on April 22nd. So any facts or anything of the case that we're going to talk about is only as recent as the morning of April 22nd, because this will get aired a few days later.
So this is a huge deal in Canada. That's not like the US, where we're so used to this stuff all the time now that it's almost just kind of another thing we see in the news, which is unfortunate. But this is much different because these mass shootings like this don't happen as often. So I'm just going to go ahead and jump right into the case, Greg, and then we'll kind of crack it open a little bit.
I love it. A couple of things to remember: not a lot of details are out yet. So the Canadian press is a little bit different than the American press for sure, in how and what's reported and when it's reported. But we do have a whole bunch of listeners in Canada, so if we get something wrong or slightly inaccurate, if you've got some other information for those of you who haven't reached out, please reach out. thehumanbehaviorpodcast@gmail.com. Obviously, we want to always lead with the facts, but you probably have some insight or tacit knowledge that we haven't heard about yet. So we'd love to do a follow-up if you want to reach out to us.
So we'll go ahead and get started. Basically, April 19th, this last Saturday, at about 10:30 at night, a guy by the name of Gabriel Wortman started a shooting rampage that lasted about 12 hours across the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. So it started at a home in a real small, kind of rural, seaside community, folks. It was something real, real small. Really, only a few hundred people live in that community at a given time. It's one of those kind of vacation areas where it increases in the summer and then decreases in the winter.
So it started out 10:30 at night, last Saturday, in this small town. Wortman killed his ex and her new boyfriend first, then started an entire 12-hour shooting rampage. During this course, he killed multiple people, including a married couple in front of their children. He set several houses on fire. As of this morning, like I said, a total of 23 people have been killed. I think that number may rise, because I also couldn't really find out too much information on how many people are injured as well. So I just do know that at least the death count is already at 23.
So he was wearing some type of authentic, what's reported is an authentic police uniform, and a vehicle that looked like a police cruiser, and that kind of allowed him a little bit of movement. So the 12-hour manhunt ended in a standoff at a gas station with police where Wortman was killed. So the RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police), the Mounties up in Canada, said that they are investigating 16 different crime scenes that were part of the murder spree. And again, there may be more. Several of those are burnt-out homes. There were a number of other injuries in the attack, but I couldn't really kind of get too much information on it. So some of the victims obviously were known to Wortman, others were not. Among people killed was a long-bedroom veteran police officer, teacher, and nurse, a whole bunch of other folks. So that's basically what occurred over this timeframe. And again, a lot of details are still coming out.
So real quick, some of the stuff I did find that's been reported on Wortman: 51 years old. He made dentures for a living; that was his job. One of the interesting things I found about him is that there's a well-known, I guess, TV host in Canada by the name of Candy Palmiter. And she reported that her and Wortman were actually close friends in college. And she said – and these are quotes from her – "I knew right from the beginning that this guy needed a friend, so I befriended him. Most of my friends didn't like him, but I didn't care. He met my parents and members of my family, and we were inseparable for that whole year. I always felt like he wasn't quite comfortable in his own skin, but I thought that as he matured he would grow into himself." She added a few other comments about Gabriel always having a sadness about him, and in her words, "He was a little different."
Okay, so that's someone from, you know, if that was back in college and he's 51 years old, I'm going to say that's probably 30 years prior to this event. These are obviously, Greg, for you and I and for the listeners to understand, these are the things that we care about. These are the details of the case that we look into, because this is where those pre-event indicators are. I'm not concerned with the type of weapon that he used, or unless it has some type of significance to his behavior. Not too concerned about a whole bunch of other facts, including kind of what people are... Of course, the headline today is "Police still searching for motive to what happened," which, again, from our perspective, doesn't matter.
So the first thing, when this came out and Greg and I were texting back and forth about this, he said, "The death count is up to this, or this many people, 12 hours." And my response, the first thing that popped in my head was, "That's a lot of killing and that's a lot of rage." And I think that kind of is a good place to start from. So, Greg, I know you were going to... I'm going to pass it back off to you, but make sure I just want to hit those kind of details of what's been reported so far.
No, no, no, and you know what? Some people only get their news from you, Brian. No, I mean, if they listen to The Colbert Report and some of that other crap. So here's the thing, Brian, you'll remember that I texted you, Shelley and Sean, as it was unfolding because, growing up in Detroit, folks, you have to understand Windsor is right across. It's actually north of Detroit, and everything East, and the OPP (Ontario Provincial Police). You get a relationship with Channel 9 News, CBET. And the way that the Canadians do their news, you have to understand, US news is really "ready, fire, aim." We push it out there, we don't know anything, and we're pushing out facts already and then we have to resend everything. The Canadians are very tight-lipped about the information until they have facts.
So what I got first is "officer down" and that it was in progress, "shelter in place." That's what I sent you, Brian, if you remember. And then we started going, "Okay, let's find..." Well, there was a time, folks, that we had like the inside track on news, and now social media trumps everything. So people are sending data, but what you have to do is you have to feel that wave. This one felt like it was unfolding and it was going to be bad right from the beginning. So, feeling that means that we used a point in time, and we compared our knowledge about that point in time against the baseline. Baseline plus this anomaly drives us to a decision, and our decision was, "Let's get those sources open. Let's start calling people and find out exactly what we have." And again, Brian, we were right on the fact that this was a big one, and it wasn't going to end for a while.
Now, I think that what we would talk about in addition to all of these things is the first thing that struck me. The first thing that struck me is, you knew the guy wasn't a copper, but he had gone through a tremendous amount of research and detail. I immediately thought of Anders Breivik. I apologize; it just popped into my head because I couldn't think of his name all morning, and we've been typing other things and working with other folks. And so all of a sudden, it pops into my head. Anders Breivik actually went to the library and sat down and said, "What did the uniforms look like?"
Real quick, Anders Breivik was in Norway, not Sweden. Norway. Sorry. He was the one, he went to, there's another Netflix movie about it. But he was one, same thing, dressed up as a police officer, set off a bomb in the financial area of Oslo, drew in first responders, all that. Then went out to this island where a lot of these folks, kind of like a high-end school slash camp for kids for all these really rich folks that all worked in that financial area, financial district. Basically, went out there to this little island, took a ferry, took a boat out there, and started killing all these little children. So, you all work, look it up quick. Yeah, I think so. Everyone knows. But again, sorry. So go ahead from there.
No, no, no, it's perfect. So what I want folks to think about is the first threads that I'm pulling is it takes a tremendous amount of detail-oriented work and organization to pull off. And some guys will say, "Hey, listen, you used a decommissioned RCMP vehicle." It doesn't matter. The logos, the way the light bar is set up, all that stuff, especially a cop or a person that's been around, they know that. They know cop tires, they know what the door insignia looks like, the old school and the new school. So they would pick that stuff right away. There's been many times that our viewers and our listeners, Brian, have been driving around in their town and seen a Crown Vic (Crown Victoria) driving around with a red light, and for just a glance you go, "Hey, there's a copper." But then you look at the whole picture, and you go, "That ain't no cop."
You see somebody driving it, you know, under chain-smoked, and then the meth-head cracks a lot decided that they, you know, buy a police vehicle. That's not what we're dealing with here, Brian. And the uniform, that's why Breivik came up. The uniform passed muster. It passed muster on a fellow female police officer that he ultimately killed. So now we're talking gift of time and distance. So if we just look at those, we got his idea to buy the gift of time and distance by looking like a cop. That drives another spiral that a lot of serial killers, a lot of mass shooters, are fascinated with coppers. They're fascinated with that. They do ride-alongs and they go to places that they do autopsy protocols and they volunteer at a mortuary. That's a fascination that they have. So we have that angle.
Then we had the angle that he's highly organized, and he uses the lowest level of sophistication attack known to man. If I want to steal the mail, I dress like a mailman. If I want to put a bomb in an Oklahoma City Federal Building, I dress like a UPS guy. Do you see where I'm going? So what's happening is that early on, when the messages started coming in, somebody should have done the math and said, "This is going to last a long time. This guy's going to kill until he's killed." You get what I'm trying to say? Because one doesn't play that many cards in their suit and say, "Okay, I'm not all in. I decided against this. I'm going to give up." What he did is he played his hand. He had been building this crescendo of violence. He had been building this for months. And then once those two first were killed—his ex and her boyfriend—because that's what this is all about: a burn of rage. Then everything else was, "I'm done. I'm full. Bring it on. Let's go. I got nothing to lose."
So one, the comparison to Breivik, spot-on. This is a very... this is an example of someone who already had a plan. So he already had a level of organization up to a point. So let's take it from kind of "at bang" sort of, right? Because like we always say, "Hey, it's all about pre-event indicators." Even our police or someone going to see him doing all this stuff? Well, no, not beforehand, not necessarily, meaning it got out, someone did. But let's take it then from "at bang." You just brought up a great point, you started with it saying, "Hey, this one felt like it was going to be a long, contracted shootout. It felt like this." So let's take it from there.
So he, what, his initial attack killed his ex and her boyfriend, started setting houses on fire. And so what would the facts then be, the artifacts and evidence, that I could use right then and there to look at that unfolding event and go, "Where's this likely headed?" Because that's going to change my response, right? It's going to change how I allocate resources, the message I send out, the communication I use. Right? So how would I know then, versus a discussion, "This is a domestic violence where he kills them and kills himself. That's it."?
What you just did is, because you're trying to experience, your training is sneaking out there. But I'm going to dial that back just a second and think of that copper on the road, or first responder, a neighbor that's looking out and going, "What's happening across the street?" Folks, most likely what you're witnessing is a domestic violence assault that's turned into a homicide, and now a person's trying to do away with the evidence, do away with themselves, and put their thumb in the dike, do something. And that happens all the time. That's, unfortunately, that's a normal thing, right? This... that's not the guy that kills 23 people. That's the person that can't control their emotions and they get rage, they lash out and then go, "Oh, damn, I can't unring that bell." Okay? So that's different, right?
So we have a targeted attack that also includes a domestic violence incident that turns fatal. So if we're going to talk about intent, the intent is proven by the severity of the damage caused at the scene. One, he goes through the scene with full intention to buy himself enough time to be able to get close enough to his target. That's why the cop stop. There's another side to that. It's like Halloween. During Halloween, what happens is we pick a costume that is meaningful to us. It doesn't have to necessarily be meaningful to another human. That's why sometimes you'll see little kids with the... you'll see little kids, and what they'll do is they'll have the mask on and they'll tip the mask up on top of their head, and when they look down you can see the mask. But the reason they do that is they're scared of their own masks. He wasn't scared of his mask. He wanted to try to show the mask to the rest of the world. So, you know, "This is your last day on the planet. You're going out in a blaze of glory." He's already made these decisions, right? Those decisions are in play.
So that's what we're at, was how do you identify that person who's made... But what I need to make sure that people understand is why he was dressed the way that he is: twofold. One, gives the time and distance to my last. "This is it. This is my show, and I'm going to dress anyway I like because I've always wanted to dress like a cop and pull people over. This is going to give me the chance." Now, he goes to the incident. At the incident, he comes in the house and kills everybody in the house, right? He didn't linger at the house. He didn't call somebody and say, "Hey, it's a barricade." There was no chance for de-escalation at that point because he was single-minded. Two, person, his organization, low level of sophistication, he used a gun, okay? Or a bat or a knife. Think about that, folks, that wasn't this long protracted chemical device that was going to go off and kill her over time. He blew her away.
He comes out of the house, and there's neighbors that heard the scrum and see the smoke starting. They're on the phone with their version of 911. And what does he do? The very first thing is he sees the two adults there and he goes, "Well, in for a penny, in for a pound," and he shoots them. Now, somebody in the news media says, "He shot him right in front of the kids." Why? Kids just didn't happen to be his targets, right? He elevated the adults to the table and said, "Welcome to the party." Killed them, lights the fire, again, outside with the cars, and then their house, and decides, "I'm going on a small-scale killing spree." So to answer your specific question, that specific domestic violence incident at someone else's home spilled out into a shootout. First responders should have cordoned off that area immediately, knowing that, like fire, it was going to spread from there. Why? Because he didn't go back to his car and speed away from the scene. He remained, and he was going to kill.
And I think in his mind, Brian, I think he thought, "This is it. This is where it's going to happen. I'm going to do that." Then, guess what? He runs out of targets, much like Dylan Klebold and Eric Harris at Columbine. He runs out of targets. So now they've got to move from the library to the cafeteria, or the cafeteria to the library. Do you get what I'm trying to say? So once he runs out of targets and people start fleeing, what's he got to do, Brian? He's got to get back in that Vic and he's got to leave that area. So as you're coming into the scene, how many times have we told first responders this of any kind? As you're coming into the scene, you absolutely have to look because the bad guy's already passed you. The bad guy's driving past you. The things and... and can you imagine a first responder going, "It was that police vehicle going the other way at a high rate of the opposite way"? Those are indicators.
So who's the best witness? While the worst witness is an eyeball witness, especially in a rapidly unfolding situation like this. But guess what? That dispatcher now has to ask the questions, "He's dressed in what? Hey, we might have a copper involved in the shooting." Do you see the way that's going to unfold, Brian? Think outside the box. I know you hate that term. But if you only think that we've got a cop down or we've got a cop with the shooting or something like that, the first responders are going to have what? They're going to have a template match that they're likely going to match, rather than a prototypical match. Does that make sense?
Yeah, and so, all right, so let's unpack a lot of what you just said, and because again, this is some of it's difficult to put together because we don't have all the details of where the place was he went next, and what was and then his next victim or target. Because it might, it probably follows his way of thinking, and it follows a very logical manner. Not logical like what normal humans, what we would think is logical, because obviously, "Spock logical."
Yeah, yeah.
But in terms of behavior and what he's looking for, what's a prototypical match for what he's looking for and intended victim? Where does he want to spill his rage out into? Right? So sometimes it could just be that victim of opportunity. No, it looks like from some of the details, getting it was someone came upon the scene or walked up and saw, "Hey, what's going on? Why?" No, apparently one person was killed because he was checking in on someone else and walked in and here's this guy and then, "Well, now he's got to die." Right?
And remember that delay because you're not thinking, even if it looks like a homicide, even if they saw blood and they heard shots fired, what do they see? They saw what looked to them, cognitively, close enough, a police vehicle and what looked to them like a police officer. So if we see that, what do we do? We psychologically de-escalate, Brian, going, "Oh, thank God, the cops are already here." You see that? You see how that played into the shooter's hand? Gabe knew that going in. He knew or should have known psychologically that going in, and that played directly to his strong suit.
So okay, so let's, let's take it from there in terms of it's, it's on it. This is unfolding and those reports come in of this occurring, and because those are chaotic events and they're chaotic, a lot of times there's communication issues between the organizations, units on the ground, separate agencies involved, dispatch to that, like those are all normal. There's a lot of communication that, that everything comes out of proper communication a lot of times, right? If somebody, and some people are now saying, "Hey, what, the police didn't do a good job of actually communicating the threat to the community. They didn't sound certain alerts that they typically do. They were doing everything over Twitter, and not everyone in that area follows them on Twitter or gets that update." So was this the best way? So that's all, always, that these things occur. So when you say, "Well, how does it go for this long and how come it took them this long?" No, there's a lot of those wheels have to get spun up and start moving and that takes time and proper communication.
So what do you think then it was, right? We can, we can say, "All right, this started as some type of rage attack. We had the, all right, he's obviously had a victim in mind. He wanted to go after his ex and her boyfriend." Targeted attack. It was a targeted attack. So now that's a typical... It's a lot of times when different, like we already said, domestic violence is that pour over into a homicide. That's what it is. It's a, you're the intended target, or if it's a suicide and I want to do it in front of your house or you or whatever, it's the same thing. Look, I'm, this is what I'm directing my anger, my rage at, right? This is where all my pain is going. "You're the problem for it. So hey, if I just get rid of you..." So now that occurs. So what then switches or how can I then get from that point to go, "Okay, is this the typical domestic violence with the homicide that a lot of law enforcement officers have seen, or is this the guy that's going to go kill a neighborhood?" And what should I see from there? What was exactly right?
So we're going to do a comparative analysis. Let's go backwards and then state and then go forwards. Really badly, one, because of the severity of the domestic violence. There's a lot of domestic violence incidents every single day that don't result in a homicide. Yes, statistically, it's a significant number, don't get me wrong, but it's a very low number. It's a very scientific, very small number of domestics that turn out to homicide, even though it's a high number of homicides if we were looking at all what the causes of homicides. Very few armed robberies, a lot more domestics. Right?
Yeah, but you'd think, like, you're going, if you're going to be killed by someone, it's someone you know. So, and someone you're in an intimate relationship with is the top. Let's go.
I want our viewers and our listeners to think back, Brian: how likely is it that our shooter in this incident stood for a protracted period of time to get this much rage? You said it, I think. I'm guessing it took a long time for him to develop to the point of him going and committing a homicide. 30 years of being "just a little bit different" translated into this one moment in time, this 12 hours of his life. Well, let's protract that over what being "a little bit different" is. 30 years later, if you continue on that track of being a little bit different and you don't get help or you don't get broken... That's all that damaged puppy that the Palmiter woman brought in and thought she could fix. Do you get what I'm saying? It's all good, but what I'm saying, Brian, is there had to be leakage. There had to be socially, there had to be behavioral leakage. There had to be something. Do you think that if we could interview the ex-wife now, she would have said, "Well, I always knew if I got killed, it was going to be him"? I know she would say that.
Oh, absolutely. How many times do you think she warned her husband, "Don't go to the door, it's probably him"? How many times did he call or threaten or anything? There's police reports, and this will all come out, folks. Mark my words, in a few weeks, you'll have all of this story. But I'm telling you, Brian, that people don't take that stuff seriously, and that's where the things start now. And one of the things to add to that, his fascination with law enforcement, you know, with the uniforms, with vehicles that look like it. I always, anytime I see those on the road where people still have, where you can buy the old Police Interceptor model Crown Vics because it still has the tag that says "Police Interceptor," yeah, I mean, and but it's a, it's still got the lights on the front and they black out the windows and you can tell by the way they drive and what they're doing that they're not really police officers, but they're trying, they are actively trying to portray that image of authority but they're not. So there's, most of the cops I know, what they're like, "No, I'm not a cop," everything.
It's an anomalous behavior. Yes, it requires an investigation.
But, but let's weigh this out because I want to bring up one thing that I did find that doesn't mean that they're not going to be a normal human being or act like a normal human being, or having... Well, because guess what? He makes dentures for a living. Well, there's, guess what? There's a news report from him years ago where he saw some girl on the news, some young kid who had issues, and he said, "Hey, I make dentures for a living. I'm going to make him for you for free," and out of the kindness of his heart went out of his way to do something for. So don't think that this is again, that they're either the Bond villain with the with a cat and the bald head and all...
You're looking the wrong way. Look at Isla Vista. Look at Elliot Rodger. He was in front of you in the line for Starbucks and probably left a penny and took a penny. Do you see what I'm saying? You're exactly right, Brian, that the normalcy pervades. That's what we get the baseline for because if a person was off all the time, we would know it. Do you understand? People would walk around with their guards up all the time.
And in this way, you bring it back to yellow padding it. So let's go, like we said, we'll start with before, but let's go one step to that comms. So you made such an incredible point on communications that I have to make sure that we talk about that for a second. You're, you're used to how comms go, okay? So you know that before an attack, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Jihadi, his brother, any of the different terrorist groups are out there, what's going to happen? We're going to do spiking found all over the place or none.
Yeah, there's zero cops. Right before that, you go, "Because you know that there's no..." Either you would really get either one of those things. It's always, "What the hell is going on here? Something's happening."
Exactly. And but it's a pre-event indication. Something's about to hit the fan. Yeah. And most likely, that something's going to be the crap. So if we look at this incident, you said it yourself, there are 16 crime scenes, there are right now 23 dead, and we both suspected that that number is going to grow. So how many calls are coming in? How many of the same calls are coming in that are just a little bit different? And then how many people are calling that have no idea what's going on? You've got to get somebody who, right away, says, "That doesn't happen every day." So your coppers, your emergency services personnel, your first responders, that's what they need to cue on is "There's a ripple in the Force, Luke. Something is wrong here right now." And guess what? What's the next thing? Geoprofile, Brian? It's all happening in the same area. Do you see what I'm trying to say? So now what you've got to do as incident command, what you've got to do as the chief of police, what you've got to do as a copper on the road or an EMS, you've got to say, "Call the blood bank. We've got a bad one. Get all my units motivated." I'm not saying send everybody, no, no, instantly.
Now, this is when your emergency service... Okay, so this gets into the, what I wrote down, how you know, how do you yellow pad an in-progress incident? And I think that's what you're talking about, right? So something calls in, you get a report, "This, there was a shooting, a homicide." Well, one, obviously in Canada that's obviously much more...
Yep. That just rates to the top of my to-do list.
Yeah, so that, that's, that's unusual there compared to here in the US. Not unusual, but I'm just saying, not nearly as frequent. So, so I have something like that occurring, all right? So boom, that re-raises to my threshold what I need. But then, like you said, now I start having all these reports calling in, right? The house is on fire in the same general area, or along this... Wait a minute. So each one of those that comes in, I can write those down and immediately realize in very little amount of time to go, "Something big has happened here."
Exactly. One, we need to, that's because that's, it's like calling in, you know, when you, when you call in a medevac, right? When something happens, you only need to give them the first few lines of a nine-line (nine-line medevac request), right? It's a nine-line, but you don't exactly because it gets them up and spinning. You don't already go, you don't wait till you know specifically what's wrong with each individual patient. You let them know, "This is where we're at, this is what happened, this is how many we have," and then you do your job. Because what does that do? That starts the progress in motion. Right? So same thing here: allocating resources, "All right, let's get this thing spun up. What do we have to do?"
So now it's, if all that's all I have is now I can do that geographic profile. "Well, where is he likely going to go next?"
You got exactly where it started in. So can he keep going through that area for very long?
But the small town means not unlimited resources. You get what I'm trying to say? So the earlier, you're spot on again. The earlier you activate that change. So I wish I would have a way to grab stuff from my environment because over in that area, Shelley's got the bell of the glaring obvious. You know, she's got this big brass bell, "Bing, bing, bing," like the old school bell. And when something's sticking out like the nose on your face, Brian, when those folks are taking those calls and they're feeling that, and all of a sudden their op tempo increases, and all of a sudden the call volume increases, that should have been enough for them to say, "Start calling people in. Notify the emergency room. I need SWAT team guy on the phone. Where's my hostage negotiator?" Even if that means calling Windsor, calling Nova Scotia, I don't know where the hell this was. He heard it through the rest of the map. What I'm saying is that you're right, if those engines are warming up and people are putting on their boots to head to the scene, guess what? There's still crime going around in other scenes, and Grandma's still having the asthma attack, and COVID's still going to... You have very precious resources, and that's why you've got to have the training to be able to read environmental time.
No, no, and I think anyone at an operational and strategic level can understand allocation of resources and what you can do, what the protocols are. There's policies and procedures. But right there on the ground, how do you then go, "Let's say, like you brought it up, okay, well, we may be, we don't know anything about this guy. We don't know what's happening. We've got all these reports coming in." I think one of the best things to do is, like we always say, we start with, "Okay, if you want to do it right there in progress, what's a geographic profile?" Meaning, even if you're chasing a person right on a foot chase, car chase, can you do a geographic profile in meters? Well, absolutely, right? So folks, pull up, take that overhead view, look at the surrounding area and where can he actually go? Where is he likely going to go now?
So if we're chasing a, let me give you an example of flooding the net, and then we'll move on to exactly what you're talking about and geocentric orbits that we need to start watching for messages. So back in the block, Eight Mile in Detroit. So just north of Eight Mile, you have General Motors. You have all the different car plants and they run all the way to Grosse Pointe or Grosse Ile in one direction, in Flint in the other direction for miles and miles and miles. And so the ones along Eight Mile are where your finishes are. So the pickup trucks and the SUVs and stuff that are just coming off the assembly line that are completely done, it just got their brand new VIN plate but they haven't even been recorded yet, are in this huge lot that runs four miles in all directions along Eight Mile. So one time a year, no matter what year it was, you would get once a year where some two boys, some stolen autos, some stolen vehicle practitioners would come up in a stolen car and six or eight of them would get out, jump over the fence and go at it, and every one of them would steal a car. Now you've got calls coming in: "Copy objects, copy on seven," all that other normal call value. And all of a sudden it's like, "Yeah," and now you've got two or three different units in the South End all in a pursuit at the same time, all going different directions. So now, guess what? We've run out of dispatchers, we're out of bandwidth.
So what I'm saying, just before we move off that point, is this is the type of incident, Brian, that they should yellow pad and dry erase board and learn from, "How did I allocate my resources? How did they do?" Because if not, we didn't build an institutional memory. We didn't get a lessons learned out. I just want them to make sure we got that. Because I know the bosses know what to do. But do you, I mean, do you know, the local library know that they need to lock down because this guy's there? So the second half of that coin, Brian, is where would he go next? And so this weekend, I got a free channel about hunting and fishing. You know, I love fly fishing and Guide Nels Cotton and everything else. And I would use this simple logic when we're seeing those calls come in, "Okay, if you and your son or daughter were out on a lake fishing, and you didn't get a nibble, you didn't get a bite, and you tried all your different bait, logical thing is, move." If you pick an area for your elk or your deer, and you've gone every year and your bugling and your scenting and you're doing all that stuff and glassing your ass up, and you haven't seen an elk since Jesus was a carpenter, you might have to move. Okay, he ran out of targets.
So, simply looking at the population and looking that he came in hard, and now he's moving, he's undulating, he's growing outside of his area, target area. That's likely his target attack. Now he's moving just like a school shooter. A school shooter rarely goes into school, shoots the kids in a classroom, and sits in that classroom. They're on the move for more targets. So historically, if we looked at precedent, it's likely that this incident is growing outward. So the less people or the more response, because if he would have wanted to shoot it out with the coppers, where would he have stayed, Brian? At Ground Zero and said, "Hey, look what I've done. Hang this photo on the refrigerator." Do you understand where I'm going with that? So as he's growing out, Brian, I think those ripples are what we need to read. We need to read the ripples like the tea leaves and say, "What are my major intersections? Is he on foot?" If he's on foot, I take a string to my pen, I put it over the map and I make a circle around and I say, "This is about how far a person you go." Average person's rate is three miles an hour. This is, you know, most two boys, if you're chasing a stolen auto and they bail on you, you know, the first thing that they're going to want to do: get home. If they can't get home, we're going to go to a home that looks like their home. And if you're right on their patoot, guess what they're going to do? They're going to hit a corner, climb under a hedge and they're going to hide. And they're in hiding. Did he give any indication from the very beginning of this episode and we're thinking it's one shooter now because there was no report that was more than one. Did we get any idea that he was hiding at any time?
Not like he was on the run. Well, to give that specifically, that and say, "Is he going to hide?" I, you know, if you're trying to hide, are you going to start setting homes on fire? Well, no, that's going to draw a lot of attention. It's going to be harder hiding. Yeah, your hiding spot is on fire.
So this is the indicators I like for the in-progress situation of what their, what's their next move? What are they going to move on to? Right? This is, this is what we know right now: is he likely going to steal a car? Now, I don't know my witnesses are saying that he left in a vehicle and it looked like a police car. That was the early confusion, Brian, because they're second, third, thing. A copper shows up at a house, the copper's down inside of the house and now the suspect is fleeing. You get it. But we don't have to know that much to determine that if he left the scene in a car, now we have a new scene and they go, "Hey, your coppers are already here." Somebody's got to start reading those and go, "Wait a minute, maybe the suspect is a copper." And at that point, Brian, it doesn't matter that he was a real, or they're wearing a costume. The idea is that we're starting to narrow the focus. Instead of a flashlight, now we're down to a laser. It may only be one or a couple of actors and they're highly motivated to keep killing. That's what he's doing.
So yes, so and I think "keep killing" and "who are they going to kill" is important again to know for that in-progress situation. So you brought up a couple of facts when you brought up the school shooter. So you can look at every school shooter, either when they're done shooting and there's no one left to kill, they either walk out and give up or they commit suicide, right? I mean, it's one or the other. They don't, meaning they don't fight it out with police because they know, you know, "Hey, they might hurt," that, that's, they're going to, they're going to get the drop on me. And so there's a whole bunch of issues about control, "I can control my own death," and all that. There's a million things you get into. But, but you look at it, "Well, are they going to shoot it out with the cops?" Because that's who, if you're in progress, that's who's dealing with it, right? Or are they going to kill themselves? Are they going to give up? So this guy didn't show any signs likely he was going to give up. He continued killing people as he was...
Exactly. More that he was going to barricade, Brian, I think. No, because he kept moving. You mentioned, "So that shoot and move, that hit and move is what we're seeing." So if he did a hit and move at his ex-wife's house, he comes outside, he surprises the neighbors that came over to see what was going on because they saw the cop car. He executed them. Now we start getting calls that are coming in. He's lighting the fires. That's a deliberate act. It takes time to do. Then he calmly gets into his vehicle and he starts moving to his next scene. If we have two points, we can create a line, and it's logical that we can protract out from that, "Hey, listen, he did this here." Now, why would we do that? One, because we want to get a jump on him and try to out-think a cunning enemy. The second thing is, if that third line, Brian, goes somewhere that we haven't anticipated, we've got to start thinking, "We've got multiple shooters." You get what I'm trying to say? "Is this a separate incident?" Or, "Wait a minute, if this guy's that crazed, is this another likely target?" That's when we start looking at those places and going, "Hey, this is close to a school. This is close..."
Yeah, so this is three annex gets into the geographic profile. One coming in because you can look at a map at where they're coming in from, right? It's not that's, we have technology right away. You can see, you can do that on your phone. Yeah, but, but you also have to be able to look up overhead and down. Because you just said it, all right, so, can I draw a line if the call came in here, then the next call was here, and then the next call was here, and I draw a line, am I going to get a general direction of travel? Well, absolutely, I am, right? And then what's, what's near there? What access roads, what major freeways or throughways are there? Exactly right, right. What do I do faced with this knowledge in this situation if I was the perpetrator? Which road would I take? Right? Don't think so deeply into it because even the most highly organized people, guess what? Natural lines of drift are created because we're creatures of habit and we repeat behaviors. Okay?
So, so this is good for in progress. So now I'm building that. So let's say now we know his location or moving in where we have positive ID or moving on. So now I'll put you in that, that seat right there of this is in going right now and you have a commander come to Greg and say, "Hey, what do my guys need to worry about? Are they going to, is he going to shoot it out with them? Is he going to give up? Is he going to kill himself? What do you think, what predict in that real time?" Because we are kind of doing it because we don't know everything that happened at that shootout at the gas station. We have no idea. Did they just show up and see him and kill him on sight? Maybe. I, I don't know to do. I don't, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if that's what they did. But yeah, at the same time, you still have to follow protocols and procedures, right? There's rules of running, so chosen rules of engagement. But, but I want to put it to you, you're sitting in that scene and we go, "Hey, someone just called him in. He's at this gas station. We have units moving in right now. How do we approach? What do you think he's going to do?"
Okay, so I, I, again, you know me, yelling out there, folks, "Do your homework." Okay? This isn't rocket science. It is science, and it's all science all the time, but this isn't so hard that you can't do it. It is intuitive. It is. One, get to training, because then you learn the architecture, you learn how to how to look. But I would say, Brian, well, played out incident just a few months ago, jewelry store robber, protracted chase, helos are involved, cops are shooting, civilians are down, everything else. One, look at that as a parallel study to conduct predictive analysis. I would have bad guys going to do. Number two, guy in Texas that was driving around, shot the UPS guy there, stole his truck, or FedEx Ground, I think. Yeah. Think about that, that, that's another very, very similar incident. Then I would say a third to study before you answer this, and this is how we work, because we've got to build the case. I can't just say, "Well, let's flip a coin," that's horseshit. Look at the California robbery, I think it was West Hollywood, Brian, where the two shooters went in, the captains had been following for a while. They came out, shot up a lot of coppers. They were moving deliberately. They were going to have to be put down like a red-hot. That's the only way we're moving, and finding a car and then another. So those guys had a good out.
So of all of those incidents, the one factor that links them together in this huge cabal is that the bad guy had to be put down in every one of those instances. This to me, from the very beginning, when we started texting, he felt like that because it was building out from a central point, and the killing increased in numbers quickly, one, then two, then four, now exponentially it's growing, and he's moving to different locations. In that incident, the likelihood of you being able to de-escalate the situation or talk it out... This person is on full acted out mode. They're on full transmit on their little internal radio, and he's done. So he's really there and he's making some really good decisions. That's why he killed for 12 hours. But he's not really home. So if you were able, wasn't home right now. It went straight to his message system that said, "Gabe's not home, he's out killing." I'm telling you right now, Brian, that is going to tell me what my response has to be. You and I watched a disturbing video 24 hours ago about a state trooper that had to make a choice to continue a pursuit for a very low-level crime that ended up in a death. That was bad tactical thinking. That was bad critical thinking and advanced critical thinking. This situation right here, you better start calling your folks and say, "Be ready to ram. I need stop sticks. You're going to have to escalate your level of violence to keep up with this guy because he's going to continue to kill until you kill him." Now, are you saying that did he likely in the car? Well, if they completely disabled his car, he couldn't get out and move around. Do you get what I'm trying to say? He couldn't abandon his car and continue the fight. He ain't going to let you take him alive. He's done. He's already done. So you're going to have to shoot me because I'll shoot you all the way up to the car, or I'm going to blow my own brains out. Simple as that. And guess what? Your subject matter expertise comes in because you could start warning those coppers at the scene, "Be prepared for these contingencies."
And that's a good thing, then it's not a surprise, right? Well, and that's kind of what I came up with, too, right? When you look at this as an in-progress thing happening, and this is occurring, I'm like, "Okay, my first, one, life, you know, like I..." It goes along with my first reaction to you when I said, "That's a lot of killing and that's a lot of rage." He's not going to stop. He will not stop. And I, I think his actions and there's no, he said, "Don't stop at this point." You're exactly right. There's no, there's, there, there's nothing. He hasn't demonstrated any likely intent of stopping the killing. So in these cases, which are rare, I think that is not just in Canada, these are rare. Yeah. And in that is one of the cases, or this is one of those things where there's, he's not going to stop killing. So, you know, he does need to be killed, or, you know what I'm saying? Like, meaning, yeah, it's not a, it's not a, we're not executing him on what he's done or making some type of decision, but as a nation to follow laws and, yeah, you follow all yours, but, but at this point, this is when you know, "Hey, we're not going to, he's not going to want to talk this one out. He's not going to want to sit on the phone with a hostage negotiator."
Every 12 hours he had every opportunity to do that. He had an opportunity to slow the rate of killing. Do you get what I'm trying to say? But he continued to bound and move and kill, which, which meant that he transmitted the likelihood, and the likelihood raised that, "You're going to have to kill me." You're exactly right.
Right. And go to the point of the person who walked in and saw him killing, right? And then he didn't drop the gun and run out the back door and take off. Nope, he killed. "Oh, I know, I got to kill her." He couldn't, or he could have kept that person hostage and said, "Listen, I want to tell you my story so I'm going to share it with the coppers. I'm going to leave you alive," you know, the Mickey and Mallory Knox.
Do you understand where I'm going? We always leave one alive to tell the story. We saw no evidence of that, Brian, in the artifacts and evidence. That's the basis on which we draw a reasonable conclusion. And guess what? The intimacy with which he created that uniform, the level of dedication and detail and time he took making that police vehicle, this isn't about the gun, Brian, he would have killed with a two-pound sledge. This is about he decided, "I'm broken. There's nothing that's going to help me anymore. So watch this. Stand by, folks, you're going to get a little load of this." And that's what happened, Brian. He acted that out. And the level of meticulous detail that preceded this event should have told you what you were dealing with at that gas station, at that solemn scene.
Yeah, and there's a, you know, there's these, these incidences which, which are rare are, I mean, are just absolutely catastrophic. And unfortunately, a lot of them could be seen now. You know, I like to say, "Well, you know, how do I know if this person is going to do this if they're saying all this crazy stuff or how do I know or what am I supposed to do?" And I get that one. I understand because everyone, if you have been trained, people want to give each other the benefit of the doubt. But, but it, that's when you, like we always say, "You yellow pad it. You write it down." And and go, "Is this behavior escalating? Did it go from exactly angry?" Because over time, all of that escalates. So 30 years ago, when he was in college and he was kind of a little weird, all right, without help or without intervention or without a change in life or your situation that now people, he could have just stayed a little weird and continued on that band with his whole life. Absolutely, yeah. People there in February, I'm a weird guy too. I'm a little odd, but, but we talked about staying home.
But, but, but what happens is now, is that behavior escalating and what's starting to occur? And you can have that, find that. I would say always look to your own personal life of, basically, you've done, "Where is this the normal stuff that I'm continuing or wait, am I, am I going out now with the boys drinking three nights a week when it was used to be once a month?" Because that's an escalation of behavior. What's that leading to? All you've got to do is look down that timeline now and see where that, where that's pointed. And I think you're exactly right.
But before the incident, you could see all that. Now, during the incident, that's no different. You just got to do it faster. Right? You got to do it more quickly, and, and guess what? Now you're going to make reasonable conclusions and, and you're going to base on "most likely, most dangerous" because it's in progress. You don't have that luxury of time always. But I want you to rewind tape to what you just said about going back. This guy, we had a 30-year window. Everybody looked at this guy. He was not always a whack job. And if he was, guess what? He should have popped hot earlier, Brian. Everybody in Canada had to look up what a denturist was when their first news media came up. Nobody knew. I didn't really go, "Denturist, what the hell does that guy do?" Ask me, "What does a denture model?" It models the existing teeth. It has to be kind of close. Can you kind of wedge it in there? Well, if you're George Washington and your carbon amount of wood made, yeah, but this is detailed work. This guy had to work with a microscope. So is it surprising that the uniform passed muster or that the car looked like a car? That's what I'm trying to say.
Now if we go back to Anders Breivik, what does... You remember that joke from a long time ago? What? Anders is a great study, folks. A kid in a boat taking him out to the island where he killed a bunch of more kids was interviewed by the police afterwards and said, "I knew this guy was a shooter right away." One, the cops around here don't carry weapons. Yeah. Or all the things he saw weird as he's driving him on the ferry to the island. Yeah. But the one thing, Brian, that I thought was interesting is he says, "Hey, this guy's got spit-shined Corfam, you know, paratroopers boots that are ladder laced with white laces." And they said, "Well, why was that an issue?" He says, "I've only seen that in a book," you know, like the book in the parade where everybody's wearing their military finest. So Breivik did the research, but Breivik's uniform was just a little off. Are you telling me that Gabe's behavior before this didn't cue anybody in that something was wrong? That he had his vehicles that he was making into police cars? He had two of them. That was so well hidden. Nobody asked him, "Hey, what's up with that?" That his uniform, putting together and going online, that his purchases... Listen, folks, this guy was married. He's like you. He held down a job. That's the most dangerous person. It's not the wackadoodle. It's not Brian's favorite friend, Charles Manson, that carves a swastika in his forehead. Yeah. It's a person that's lived like a Dennis Rader. He's lived a normal life. He had a normal job. He did normal things. That's what you need to look for is you need to look for that blip. And the more of those blips that you get that are above or below the baseline, Brian, they need to be accounted for. And when somebody wants their say and their way, that's it. That's the most personal.
So here, here's what it is. It's unfortunate, these any type of domestic violence or domestic situation or even if it's an argument or relationship issues, they're brutal because they're so highly emotional and they can also affect many other people outside of that. Yeah, it's, it's not like getting in an argument with your buddy. I mean, this is like, their feelings and emotions are run away and and it's, it's they're so volatile. So, and it would, the unfortunate thing is, you know, how many times do you think his ex-wife said, "You know, he's going to kill me someday"? And I, I don't and, and this is what, what I get into when we go, you know, we always say, "Hey, you got to look for these indicators," but then we also say, "Well, you can't jam a square peg into a round hole," right? It's that analytic, "most likely, most dangerous" course of action. So if that is that person because I've, I've helped out some friends before in situations where they said, "Hey, this guy is sending me this, this is what he's doing. What the heck do I do?" I go, "All right, number one, you have to document everything. Number two, you got to immediately get a temporary restraining order." It doesn't mean anything if it turns out to be not a big deal. It's a warning to him and don't never leave you alone and it goes away if it's, if it's nothing serious, it's called a temporary one. You got to document this. You have to annotate why this is, is that. And I always look for, what does their behavior is it escalating? Are they starting to make threats? Like a paramedic, I think.
You're getting better. Is it, yeah, these are the incidents.
Are they overt threats or are they veiled threats? Are they this? What is it they're actually saying? And write it down on that yellow pad because then you'll see the difference between someone who's angry and upset because they don't have the emotional maturity to deal with a breakup or the situation or whatever versus someone who's likely to get violent, someone who's going to act out and wants their way, not just their say.
And that would recede if they're one of those columns that you just built, and they're 70 columns. But if there's one of those, guess what? Every time it's a holiday, every time I eat dinner, every time we go to your uncle's, it's going to repeat those patterns, Brian, because those same internal triggers get our physiology going. And anytime you put up some type of barrier, right, we always say, "People teach you how they want to be treated." So you teach that person how you want to be treated. So true.
Did you set a line in the sand and did they cross it or did they respect that boundary? And did you come back again? Did you go to the hotel for the night and keep coming back? You're right.
And that I'm saying is that if you put a boundary out, you draw that line in the sand, and they don't respect that boundary, well then they're never going to respect the boundaries. If you put one out and they respect it, but they still get upset, but they don't do that again, okay, they're learning.
They're planning. So that it's, it's a comparative baseline here, right? What do I compare to? Just like you said, "Is it better? Is it worse? Is it increasing? Is it decreasing?" Yeah, I think those, those occur and that's, I think, no different then, so that's all, you know, "left of bang," right? That's all before these.
And I'll throw this at you, Brian. When you take a look at these, you've been traveling with me for ten years, you know everybody that I know that works in a related discipline. Every time that we're somewhere, somebody comes up to me and goes, "So what are you saying? That I should call the cops every time?" My answer's always been the same: "Yes. Let the cops there figure it out. Talk to somebody about this. Say something about it." Because people sit on information that ends up being the key piece of evidence in the case, and then people die. This guy telegraphed his motion. Every human being telegraphs their action before it occurs. That happened in this incident. The people just weren't trained on what to do with that knowledge.
Right. And that's the other thing what we always say, you know, yellow pad it or take notes. And I've helped friends out situations where I said, "Every time you see something or something occurs, well, you got a damn smartphone and you got a calendar on there. Open up the calendar and use the same color every time the person does something and write a note about it. Just document it right there." "Hey, guess what?" In court, people go, "Oh, crap, they..." That's, that's too detailed.
Okay. So, so meaning you're gathering artifacts and evidence in support of a reasonable conclusion. Right? So there's that. So now, continuing, I mean, we talked about the case. And then, same thing, you can do that in progress, right? So just like I brought up, right, you do that same thing just, just much quicker.
Okay. Right. What's happening right now that it needs note? What, what do I know? Let's draw this out on a map. What's he been doing? What's been reported? And then continue looking down that line. Is this, is this situation escalating? Is it de-escalating? Are they, did they, you know, someone see him drop the gun and take off running? Because that's different than, "No, he keeps shooting and going after it."
One of those things is like Qbert (like the video game Qbert), it's building on those different cubes and it's going up. And, and I've got to talk to my copper friends out there, Brian. You're pinned down behind the sled because you pulled up to a stolen car at the scene. Gabe walks out, he immediately takes a couple of shots. "Holy crap, that's not a copper, that's a bad guy." Now I'm behind the fender well, I'm behind the tire. I have to do a quick calculation and go, "This is the guy that they were talking about from the next town. There's already at least 12 crime scenes, there's people dead all over. It's just me and I can't get to my shotgun or my AR. I'm bugging out." You've got to do that kind of logic. Sometimes we get that tombstone courage, Brian. "Oh, hey, I'm going to be the one that has to stop this guy." This is the time to start clearing the houses and use the air on your parental and get the hell out of there until you get better help. See, what happens is sometimes we keep pushing things in to try to stop that leakage, you know, and all of a sudden, guess what? Some of that breaks down and now the garage wall is all soaked in the sand and the architecture is falling in on itself. Don't make a bad incident worse. Don't get into that situation and look and go, "Hey, I'm the one that's going to have to stop this," because, guess what? There was probably 15 or 16 people in that stack that said they could do something. And, and guess what? It's, it's evolving too fast. Gift the time and distance means you've got to slow this down. He's not slowing down the killing, so that's your job. This needed training, Brian. The training we do is free.
That's the tactical patience because I've seen it and and anyone who's done any type of TDGs (Tactical Decision Games), the military calls it the tactical decision games where you just come up with a set of circumstances and then you can whiteboard it. A lot of law enforcement agencies do that even for like promotion boards. Are you wanting to the next rank or supervisory level? They'll sit there in a room and go, "Hey, all right, here's the situation unfolding, boom." And then you have to go, "Hey, here's what resources I would allocate to that." And then they layer on more. "Now this is happening. Now this is occurring." And it's all, that's what it's for. It's reactive to based on what resources you have and how to allocate them. But, but what I've never seen in any of those is someone go, "All right, well at this point, where do you think this person's going next? What do you think, what do you think the next situation is going to be? Where can he go from here? All right, if this attack started at this location and this is what we've reported so far, what's the next likely location?" And and that doesn't get played out as much. And that's what both in military and law enforcement in those, because those planning exercises are great. They are. They're just like we do everything we do is a TDG, right? Everything we do in class, part tests, all the stuff we're talking about here with the yellow pad. That's what it is. It's, it, these very simple exercises are what would give you that the training or the file folders necessary to have something when these situations occur. Otherwise, if you don't play the "what if" game, you know, you're never going to know what to do if something happens. But at the same time, if you don't play the "what if" game correctly and you just come up with random crap, you're going to get smoked.
And you're going to... Yeah. And to go back to your point of that guy who shows up on the scene, man, it's look, what do we always say? "Rule number one, first do no harm." Right? I do that, baby. I mean, how many, and I think sometimes we, we take that for granted in terms of how many different units have we worked with, agencies, companies, private, public sector, law enforcement, military, or I've been attached to different units or gone out on stuff. And that's always rule number one is one, "I want, I want, I don't want to become a liability. I want to be an asset to the team." But two, "It's first do no harm. I don't want to get in here and make the situation worse for you." Right? So, so sometimes that means, "Hey, let's hold back here. Let's pull back," like you said, "Reverse out, reverse out, reverse out and get some time and distance because you're getting killed on the scene and then him taking my ammo." Well, I just, I just made this...
And guess what? You not only made the situation worse, Brian, but you paid for your mistake with your life, and now other people are going to die.
Brian, you don't make enough money for that. For 35 years, I've been conducting the same social experiments, and you witnessed one just a couple of weeks ago when we were in Virginia. And, and the idea was to get two groups of highly educated SMEs (Subject Matter Experts) that are very experienced in the process and say, "I want you to attack this or I want you to take this perspective." And what do they always do when they're left to their own devices? You'll come back, it's the Rube Goldberg operation. "We're going to parachute in, and you're going to kill all the power to the city." It looks like that, what's that movie, the Dean Martin movie, that the other guys do, Ocean's Eleven? Yeah, and it comes... So we need a ventriloquist, and Brian, and this guy's got to fit in the box, and he's going to get in the safe. Incredible, because it doesn't work. When we poke holes in that and we kick them down, and tell them to try again, what did they come back to us? "What's the plan?" It's, it's we got a guy with a bag with a gun in it that we're going to try. Like it's like the most simple, basic attack that happens all the time. So this guy's attack plan, his attack plan was, "I'm going over to the house and I'm going to kill my wife. I'm going to kill that guy, and then see what's next. I'm going to have my say and have my way." That lit the fuse, and the fuse is still going. Without training, Brian, you're throwing darts at a map. With training, predictive analysis specifically, now you're starting to think like that insurgent, you're thinking like that criminal, and you're going, "This is where I'm going to put the best bang for my buck. I'm going to do this." And Brian, it, we're forecasting, but it's better than weather forecasting because we're forecasting on tangible stuff that we can measure. We're not Nostradamus, we're saying, "This indicates that there's a likelihood that this will happen next." And Brian, we're right a lot more than we're wrong.
And then this is one of those incidents. Look, I just gave a professor out there a whole semester that he can do next year. So if you're listening, a university professor, I named four cases, companion cases, that you could look at and then hold this one up for it, and then give your students 20 assignments because they'll learn from this. Yeah, it's all about human behavior. Dial it back and I bet you predict what's going to happen just by the evidence over here along that timeline. And Brian, that's what we do for a living.
So, so I end on that. For anyone listening, if you want to know, you know, "Hey, how the heck do I do that?" Is you pick one case, and you're the best in the world. You go down the rabbit hole and find that, you know, "This shooter's great-aunt was related to the king of whatever." Like, you go down that rabbit hole of every single detail, whether it has anything to do with the case or not. And once you become an expert at one, once you see another case and you start reading stuff, and you start looking at things that are happening here, you see indicators, you go, "Oh, that reminds me of this part of," and then now the light bulbs go off. And, and then it makes it easier to extrapolate information out of any of these other cases that we talked about because now you have a template and a prototypical match, right?
Or for the pre-event indications of violence that occurred in each one. And then somebody will start telling you something, boom, you're, Brian, that file folder, click, click, click, click. You've got 52 cards behind that that all have information on it, and it makes you smarter, faster, stronger, and harder to kill. Okay.
Yeah, so I think that was, I, that's kind of how we would do this. Remember, like, I feel like we want more information though, Bro, right? So that's why your victims, friends, families, call us, tell us. If anyone in Canada who's listening, because we got a whole bunch of listeners up there, you know, please reach out to us at thehumanbehaviorpodcast@gmail.com or info@arcadiacognarad.com. So we can, if you've got something or if we miss something, we'll be happy to recap. But I think this is kind of what I would, I want to get on the situation because, because there's so little information, because it just happened, press is a little bit different, all that stuff. We were able to pull it enough to at least, you know, we couldn't do a specific timeline and geolocation and look at a map and all that, which is that's what you want to do for the after-action is get into that type of detail. And then as you go through these attacks, I would listen to anyone is, is if you're the one out there who's going to write the after-action review on this and you get all the details and you get the timeline and you go, "Hey, at this point he did this and this was our response and then he did this and then we allocated this here." That's all important, but what we forget sometimes in there is at each one of those points, you can then say, "Hey, this is what we knew at this time. Yes, this is what we should have done or this is what we could have done. Could have made them be good impact here. Yeah, we could negate it here. We could, we could have cut the chain in these events here versus 12 hours later we could have done it in three hours." Or you get what I'm saying? And that's how you save lives. That's how you maximize the lessons learned out of all of these cases.
I think you're really tying it to, "Where could we have cut the cord on this to end it sooner?" And, and be able to articulate that, of course, in a legal, moral, ethical framework. But that, that's, that's the big takeaways. And again, maybe we'll get some more information so we can do a follow-up on this case. I think that would, because we want to be right. We want to have the best information. And what we just showed you again is an architecture that you can apply to any case. And, and again, get that training. The training is out there. Learn those things because, Brian, I'd see every form of tactical training, from ramming cars to shooting to this to that. That's all "at bang," and it's necessary. We're not saying that it's not necessary, but you've got to dial it in and you've got to go further back. You've got to be able to read those. The gift of time and distance means the further left of bang, the less it's going to hurt.
All right, well, I think that's a good point to kind of wrap on unless you've got anything else to add, Greg.
No, no, shout out to everybody out there that's still withstanding the COVID. We're all in this at the end, this at the same time. Don't forget, training changes behavior.